Friday 13 June 2014

Limited availability of domestically manufactured MEG in India make bulk prices volatile

There are three main domestic manufacturers of MEG in India, mainly Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), India Glycols Limited (IGL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL). However, since the past few months supplies from most of these manufactures have been constrained in the local markets from time to time due to various reasons. Currently, only one domestic manufacture's stock is available in the market, while import bulk price have constantly been gaining weight over the past few months. This review, summaries the domestic plant closure/captive consumption saga, import price fluctuations and bulk price moment of the chemical during current peak seasonal demand .


Since the past few months, RIL hasn't been releasing any stocks in the domestic markets as the company has been captively consuming MEG at its Jamnagar refining facility, polyester complex, for producing POY and PSF.

IOCL ceased its plant operation between April- May, 2014, during that time only IGL stocks were available in the market.

However, at present, there is no availability of IGL manufactured MEG in the market as the company is captivity consuming the chemical to manufacture Ethyl Cellulose which is thereon being exported, the website gathers from various industry insiders.

Currently, only IOCL stocks are available in the domestic market and as on 1st June, 2014 the company conducted an upward price revision for MEG by Rs. 1.8 per kg to Rs. 64.5 per kg (exclusive of all taxes).

Presently, the bulk prices are in the range of Rs. 74-75 per kg Ex- Mumbai, all price are exclusive of taxes. Given the limited availability of domestic MEG in the market, the price is extremely sensitive to landing price, exchange rate fluctuations and availability of imports in the domestic markets.

According to our price database, in the month of March, the bulk prices for MEG were more or less stable at levels of  Rs. 68-70 per kg, Ex- Mumbai. In April the bulk prices escalated to Rs. 75-76 per kg, on account of short supply of imports. However, the prices couldn't sustain at these levels and on an average the price settled at range of Rs. 71-72 per kg. However, in May the prices once again reached levels of Rs. 76-79 per kg, Ex Mumbai port, on account of short supply.

As such, its concluded that MEG prices typically stabilise is in the range of Rs. 77-79 per kg during short supply situations.

The landing price of MEG has increased by $85 per metric tonne since last month to current benchmark price of $985-990 per metric tonne FOB South East Asia and Far East Asia. On the other hand, appreciating rupee this month has been counteracting the increasing landing price of MEG to some extent.

At the moment, there is limited availability  of MEG in Ahmedabad market. In this regards, a trader added, "There is no availability of IOCL manufactured MEG in the market. At present, there is limited availability of  imported MEG. Hence most traders are commanding the selling price in the market".

Presently, there is strong cyclical demand for MEG from PET and polyester industry in India. However, the bulk prices in India at the moment are extremely sensitive toward inventory buildup of imports in domestic markets and exchange rate fluctuations. Most traders are of the view that the prices will not move beyond levels of Rs. 77 per kg in the short to medium term, until and unless there is major shortage of import, which is highly unlikely given the fact most trader maintain good stock inventories during summer season. 

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